Writing to the SCMP over the weekend, Exasperated of Mid – Levels explained how Hong Kong can lift all Covid restrictions yet stay consistent with Mainland policy. The following day, Carrie Lam announced that she will not seek re-election.
Unfortunately my letter (scroll down to “How to open up while remaining aligned with mainland”) was heavily edited so here is the original:
Sir,
Let me suggest how government policy on Covid can reintegrate HK with the rest of the World whilst remaining aligned with the rest of the country.
Clearly, Covid is now widespread in HK. A few incoming passengers will have no material impact on the numbers. What does testing, compulsory or voluntary, tell us anymore? And don’t clog up hospitals with the mild or asymptomatic. As for social distancing rules, we have long accepted that these can intrude only so far – needing to take the MTR, for example, always outweighed the risk of catching Covid whilst doing so. And, really, how dangerous is going to the beach or dining out in the evening? If you are frightened of catching Covid, get vaccinated! You might still get Covid, you might still die but it is not very likely.
Meanwhile, the immense reputational, economic and mental health damage escalates.
So, there is no scientific basis for keeping any of inbound quarantine, compulsory testing or social distancing. The vulnerable should be protected but the vast majority of us should stay at home if feeling poorly, seek medical help if seriously ill and otherwise get back to living life just as we usually do and just as the rest of the World now is. Nor is there any need to relax these rules only gradually.
The only difficulty would then seem to be Mrs. Lam comparing opening to the Mainland to opening to the rest of the World. She originally prioritised the former, last week she was ambivalent. In fact, the two can be treated differently with only a subtle reframing.
First, it is permissible for different health decisions to be taken at a local level given their different circumstances. Shanghai may currently be in lockdown but most other cities on the Mainland are not. NSW eased its restrictions ahead of other states in Australia; England did so ahead of the other countries in the UK. Internal borders needed to be put in place but we already have a very effective one with Shenzhen.
Second, as JM Keynes supposedly remarked, one’s views can change when circumstances do and they certainly did through March in all of HK, the Mainland and the rest of the World.
Third, the government has already adapted its approach several times. Adjusting our policy from “the Mainland first” to “consistent with the Mainland” would be quickly forgiven if HK could resume its role as Asia’s World City.
