This paper from EY re HK housing Mar 23 is welcome and should, as intended, start – or, better, expand – a broader debate on how HK’s Northern Metropolis in particular can address the longstanding housing shortages in Hong Kong.
To which I would add:
- The NM will in due course provide perhaps 186,000 housing units. Are these intended to replace the current dreadful housing such as cage homes? Or accommodate new arrivals, mostly from over the border? If the latter, why are so many people expected when the HK birth rate in 2021 was a mere 1.09 and the Greater Bay Area initiative should, if anything, encourage people to move from more expensive HK to cheaper Guangdong province?
- The NM makes a lot more sense than the largely discredited Lantau Tomorrow Vision, since downgraded and renamed Kau Yi Chau artificial islands which might deliver 210,000 flats in pretty much the same long timeframe as NM but at enormous cost and environmental impact. (LTV / KYC’s main justification seems to have been to avoid confronting the ambiguities in title and vested interests so prevalent across the New Territories. Better to deal with these directly.) The Civil Engineering and Development Dept and Planning Dept started (another) study on LTV / KYC in 2021 which is set to run until 2024 (there is currently a public consultation exhibition at City Hall). No need! The government can safely can LTV / KYC. HK does not need both NM and LTV / KYC.
- What is meant by a “unit” of housing? This needs to be flexible and dependent on user need and cost of building it. For example, shared bathroom facilities are considered acceptable in students’ halls of residence; in New York city, upmarket lofts are converted without full kitchens because eating out is so affordable (so, here in HK, keep the dai pai dongs!).
- Does the new supply need to come from new build? There are plenty of underused commercial and industrial buildings which could be converted to residential use more quickly and cheaply but for the government’s own regulations.
- How will adding this extra housing affect current supply? According to the 2021 census released last month, 45% of the population live in public rental housing or subsidized home ownership housing – and 53% live in housing owned by a landlord or by themselves. They will not want the value of their housing to actually fall. No one said that this was easy.
